A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
